THE NEED FOR CONTROLLED-SOURCE STRESS-MONITORING SITE FOR STRESS-FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that the time and magnitude of earthquakes can be stress-forecast by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting over appropriate ray paths. Theory (APE*-mode!ling) and observations demonstrate that the aspect-ratios of stress-aligned fluid-saturated grain-boundary cracks and pores are modified by the build up of stress before earthquakes. [...]